Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Nigeria powers on, but will it take off?

    February 2, 2018

    Nigeria’s geopolitical and socio-economic outlooks, while improving, are far from ideal. While the economy is growing again, long-running issues relating to security, corruption and infrastructure constraints continue to hamper business activity. Presidential and legislative elections in 2019 will increase political ambitions and competition in the next year which will create further challenges. President Muhammadu Buhari, who is frail and has ...

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  • 2018 Global Risk Forecast – Sub-Saharan Africa

    January 5, 2018

    Several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are holding presidential or general elections in 2018, many of which will be key for the regional and global economies.

    The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which was plunged into a political crisis since December 2016, when President Joseph Kabila failed to step down and ...

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  • Case Study: Ethiopia’s garment industry, between high potential and low yield

    December 21, 2017

    Ethiopia’s government has recognised the strategic potential of garment manufacturing and has offered a range of incentives to foreign investors. However, many challenges remain, posing major reputational risks to international firms.

    Ethiopian farmers have been growing cotton for centuries, but until now, it has never played a major economic role. Agriculture dominates the Ethiopian economy, representing 39 per cent of GDP, ...

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  • Trend Assessment: Cameroon’s Anglophone problem

    November 20, 2017

    Since October 2016, growing secessionist sentiment has been brewing in Cameroon’s English-speaking regions. What originally began as a protest movement by legal practitioners and teachers using the English language, claiming that the majority French-speaking administration was discriminating against them on linguistic grounds, has gained momentum and escalated into violent confrontation between security forces and protesters, as well as armed attacks ...

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  • Trend Assessment: Somalia’s security paradox

    November 2, 2017

    Amid a perceived improvement of the security situation in Mogadishu, investors have begun flocking back to the capital, creating new fiduciary pressures which are again exacerbating the security environment.

    Picture of the circle mogadishuIslamist terrorism, the perennial problem

    • September: Sub-national government disagree over the country’s foreign policy positions
    • July to October: Incidents ...

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